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05.07.2024

Brent oil maintains upward momentum on expectations of high summer demand and supply cuts

Brent crude oil prices continue to rise for a fourth consecutive week, keeping close to the highest levels since late April due to expectations of high fuel demand in the US during the summer and some supply concerns.


Thus, Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil are prepared to cut oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in July. The combined load of Rosneft and Lukoil at this port will decline by about 220,000 barrels per day in July compared to the previous month. The total volume of oil loading at Novorossiysk in July was set at 1.8 million tons, down from 2.9 million tons in June.


Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 12.2 million barrel drop in US oil inventories last week. Analysts expected a reduction of only 700,000 barrels.


Wednesday’s data showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US rose last week. The number of unemployed citizens also increased. Such dynamics in the labor market may force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to accelerate its monetary policy reversal. These expectations support oil prices.


At the technical level, Brent oil prices are forming an uptrend on the H4 timeframe. In terms of wave analysis, the price is forming the third ascending wave. Breaking through the peak of the first wave at 86.20 has already taken place. This indicates a potential strengthening of the upward momentum.


Signal:

The short-term outlook for Brent suggests buying

The target is at the level of 91.00.

Part of the profit should be taken near the level of 89.00.

A stop-loss could be placed at the level of 84.50.

 

The bullish trend is short-term, so trade volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.

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